How Long Until You Buy a 3D Printer?

A few technologies have had monumental impact on society. Recently, my generation has seen the wide adoption of computers, cell phones, and the internet. Right around the corner is 3D printing. Before diving down into the evolution of 3D printing, lets analyze the spread of computer consumption. The chart below depicts the rate of adoption of technologies as a percentage of households. 

We see that computers were at 20% in the early 1990s and reached over 60% in just a few years. This is a huge jump, but particularly, lets look at the year 1977. This was the year in which Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak presented their Apple II to the West Coast Computer Faire in 1977. We note that the initial spike in early adopters for computers took place a fifteen years before even 20% of households had a computer in their home. While this gap may seem rather large, we know with future technologies, this gap will shrink.

Next, lets analyze where the 3D printing industry is at in terms of early adopters. First, we note the surge in interest in the New York Maker Faire, a 3D printing faire and networking event. 

• 2010 - Three business attend
• 2011 - Five business attend
• 2012 - Over twenty companies attend the faire

We note that there is a highly analogous correlation between the state of computers in 1977 and that of 3D printers now in terms of consumer interest. However, 3D printers are light years beyond that of 1977 computers. Therefore, we can conclude that there will be MUCH less time than fifteen years before 20% of households own a 3D printer. I would even speculate this duration to be half that of computers, in the neighborhood of five to eight years, before 20% of U.S. households own a 3D printer.

In conclusion, 3D printers will become much more prominent and well known. There are already large companies with expensive printers that are selling cloud 3D printing services. Read my next blog post to find out my prediction of where the 3D printing industry will be in the next five years.